With the long-standing dominance of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo now fading into history, the Ballon d'Or race feels more competitive than it has in nearly two decades. A growing number of players now begin each season believing they have a genuine chance to win football’s most prestigious individual honour. Ousmane Dembele overcame years of inconsistency to claim the Golden Ball in 2025 and entered the 2026 contest as one of many serious challengers.
Dembele largely captured the award thanks to his decisive role in helping Paris Saint-Germain lift their first European Cup, and once again the UEFA Champions League is expected to heavily influence this season’s outcome. However, with a World Cup also scheduled, the eventual winner may not be known until the summer in North America.
It is also important to remember that the Africa Cup of Nations will factor into voting, meaning some players could shine both at club level and across two major international competitions in the same campaign.
The Ballon d'Or race is a long-distance battle rather than a sprint, and history shows that contenders can emerge late. Dembele himself only became a serious favourite midway through the 2024-25 season. Still, with the European campaign now past its halfway point and the Champions League knockout stages underway, GOAL’s Ballon d'Or Power Rankings continue to monitor the most likely candidates in the weeks ahead:
Martin Zubimendi (Arsenal)
In 2025-26: Seven goals, four assists.
Rodri proved in 2024 that a deep-lying midfielder who wins both the Premier League and a major summer tournament can triumph in the Ballon d'Or race. Now Martin Zubimendi is aiming to mirror the success of his Spain team-mate. While neither title is guaranteed yet, Arsenal’s status as Champions League contenders could allow Zubimendi to produce an even more memorable season than Rodri managed two years ago.
Zubimendi has been one of the standout Premier League arrivals this season. With Mikel Arteta’s side lacking a single dominant scorer or creative talisman pushing for individual honours, the former Real Sociedad midfielder could emerge as Arsenal’s main Ballon d'Or representative in the decisive months ahead.
Pedri (Barcelona)
In 2025-26: Four goals, eight assists. Won Supercopa de Espana.
Despite only just turning 23, Pedri continues to rank among the most elegant midfielders in world football, with Barcelona functioning best when their central orchestrator is available. Injuries have again disrupted his campaign, but when fit, few players in La Liga have matched his influence.
Hansi Flick’s team remain on course to defend their domestic title while staying in the Champions League hunt. Pedri is also set to be a key figure for Spain as they chase World Cup glory. Provided he avoids further spells on the sidelines, another Ballon d'Or nomination looks increasingly likely.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Al-Nassr)
In 2025-26: 27 goals, four assists.
Only Sir Stanley Matthews has ever won the Ballon d'Or at the age of 40 or above, and Ronaldo joining that exclusive group may sound unlikely to European-focused observers. Yet he continues to score prolifically in Saudi Arabia and could finally end his trophy drought in the region. After a brief mid-season dip, Al-Nassr are back atop the Pro League standings and are favourites for the AFC Champions League Two.
With FIFA granting him clearance to feature from the start of the World Cup, Ronaldo will once again lead Portugal’s attack after their UEFA Nations League triumph last year. If he enjoys success at both club and international level over the next six months, another Golden Ball cannot be ruled out.
Raphinha (Barcelona)
In 2025-26: 13 goals, five assists. Won Supercopa de Espana.
Many felt Raphinha’s fifth-place finish in the 2025 Ballon d'Or voting failed to reflect his extraordinary numbers for Barcelona. The Brazilian seems determined to re-enter the conversation after overcoming a troublesome hamstring issue that slowed his early-season progress.
His match-winning display against Real Madrid in the Supercopa de Espana final highlighted his return to top form. Raphinha now looks set to torment defences in both Spain and Europe again, while he is also expected to be a leader for Brazil at the World Cup under Carlo Ancelotti.
Gabriel Magalhaes (Arsenal)
In 2025-26: Four goals, four assists, 19 clean sheets.
Few players better represent modern Arsenal than Gabriel Magalhaes. The Brazil defender has become one of the Premier League’s most dangerous threats from set pieces, while his physical style of defending is perfectly suited to the current era.
Although William Saliba remains highly regarded, Gabriel is now arguably the more influential of Arsenal’s centre-back pairing. If he continues to score key goals while maintaining defensive solidity, a strong World Cup campaign with Brazil could secure him a Ballon d'Or nomination.
Lionel Messi (Inter Miami)
In 2025-26: 22 goals, 19 assists. Won MLS Cup.
Could he really do it again? The idea of Messi returning to Ballon d'Or contention once seemed far-fetched. Yet after guiding Inter Miami to their first MLS Cup and with Argentina among the World Cup favourites, an eighth Golden Ball bid suddenly feels possible.
Messi was outstanding in securing a second consecutive MLS MVP award, contributing heavily in the play-offs. If he can help Argentina defend their global crown in North America, much of the credit will once again fall on his shoulders.
Declan Rice (Arsenal)
In 2025-26: Five goals, 12 assists.
Rice announced himself among the world’s elite midfielders with his Champions League displays against Real Madrid last season and has only improved since. He is now central to Arsenal’s pursuit of both the Premier League and their first Champions League title.
His energy, defensive work and set-piece delivery make him indispensable, while he is also a guaranteed starter for Thomas Tuchel’s England as they look to end decades of international disappointment at the 2026 World Cup.
Vinicius Jr (Real Madrid)
In 2025-26: 14 goals, 12 assists.
After a disappointing 2025 with just eight La Liga goals, Vinicius Jr has reminded everyone that class endures. A strong start to 2026 has seen him rediscover his match-winning edge.
To stay in the Ballon d'Or race, he must help Real Madrid win trophies and improve his underwhelming international record with Brazil. If he achieves both, a return to Golden Ball contention is very much on the cards.
Vitinha (Paris Saint-Germain)
In 2025-26: Six goals, 10 assists. Won Trophee des Champions, UEFA Super Cup & FIFA Intercontinental Cup.
Vitinha’s rise from a difficult loan spell at Wolves to a Ballon d'Or podium finish in 2025 has been remarkable. Many now view him as the world’s best midfielder, and his performances this season support that claim.
He has added goals and assists to his game, including a memorable Champions League hat-trick against Tottenham. With Portugal believing in their World Cup chances after Nations League success, Vitinha could play a decisive role in any triumph.
Luis Diaz (Bayern Munich)
In 2025-26: 21 goals, 17 assists. Won DFL-Supercup.
Liverpool supporters may still question the wisdom of selling Luis Diaz, but the Colombian has thrived since joining Bayern Munich for €75 million. His partnership with Harry Kane has flourished, and his goals in the Bundesliga and Champions League have turned heads.
With Colombia tipped as dark horses at the World Cup, Diaz’s first appearance on the global stage could further strengthen his Golden Ball credentials.
Michael Olise (Bayern Munich)
In 2025-26: 15 goals, 26 assists. Won DFL-Supercup.
Any doubts about Olise’s ability to step up from Crystal Palace to Bayern Munich have vanished. The winger has delivered consistently in both the Bundesliga and the Champions League.
His club form has secured him a regular place in France’s starting XI, and he could be one of the standout performers at the upcoming World Cup.
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)
In 2025-26: 16 goals, 16 assists. Won Supercopa de Espana.
The bookmakers’ pre-season favourite, Yamal is on course to become the youngest Ballon d'Or winner in history. His Champions League performances last season convinced many he is already among the world’s best.
Concerns remain about injuries and his workload at such a young age, while Barcelona’s defensive weaknesses may hinder their European ambitions. As a result, his World Cup displays for Spain could prove decisive.
Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid)
In 2025-26: 43 goals, nine assists.
Is this finally Mbappe’s year? Long tipped as a future Ballon d'Or winner since his Monaco days, the French star is still waiting to lift the trophy at 27.
He has carried a struggling Real Madrid side with crucial goals and traditionally saves his finest international performances for World Cups. As France captain, he is expected to remain a central figure in this year’s race.
Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
In 2025-26: 42 goals, nine assists.
After a below-par season by his standards, Haaland began the campaign in devastating form, powering Manchester City’s title push. Though he endured a brief scoring drought around the New Year, he now appears back to his best.
Norway’s first World Cup qualification since 1998 enhances his case, giving him a chance to shine on the global stage and reinforce his Ballon d'Or bid.
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
In 2025-26: 48 goals, five assists. Won DFL-Supercup.
Now that he has finally shed the label of being trophyless, Kane looks determined to secure individual recognition as well. His record-breaking scoring run for Bayern Munich has been matched by an improved all-round game.
If he maintains this level, more silverware should follow. England supporters hope their captain can carry this form into the World Cup, where he remains central to the Three Lions’ hopes of ending their long wait for international glory.
