Football betting expert Jones Knows shares his expert analysis on the midweek Premier League fixtures, offering insight into score predictions and betting tips. Here's a breakdown of some key matchups and player performances to watch.
Score Prediction & Best Bet for Burnley vs. Brighton
Jones predicts a 1-1 draw between Burnley and Brighton, with Alex Scott to have over 2 shots (11/10 with Sky Bet) being the best betting option. On the other hand, the 3/1 odds with Sky Bet for Bashir Humphreys to receive a yellow card look particularly appealing. Playing on the left for Burnley, Humphreys has been booked in four of his last nine starts, reflecting a 44% booking rate—significantly higher than the 25% implied by the odds, making this a value bet.
Foul-Winning Focus: Gudmundsson and Xhaka
A smart bet in the midweek fixtures includes the BuildABet option with Sky Bet, where Gabriel Gudmundsson to be fouled 2+ times and Granit Xhaka to be fouled 1+ times is priced at 13/8. Gudmundsson has proven to be a master at winning fouls, averaging 2.1 fouls won per 90 minutes across his last 22 starts. This makes him a prime candidate for a foul-winning market, as seen in his recent five-foul performance against Manchester City.
Wolves' Defensive Approach Against Low Blocks
Arne Slot has acknowledged his team's challenges when facing low-block defenses, as teams that crowd central areas and slow down the game can neutralize attacking threats. Wolves, under Rob Edwards, are becoming more adept at handling this type of play, focusing on a disciplined and compact defensive strategy. Their recent success against Arsenal, Newcastle, and Aston Villa demonstrates their effectiveness in these scenarios, with Wolves thriving as heavy outsiders in these fixtures. Jones predicts a 2-1 win in their upcoming match.
